From Tranquility To Volatility

OK... so the SNB didn't consult me before they made their move on Thursday so I didn't get a chance to write about it this week (I was already knee deep in Greece when the news hit the wires) but you can be sure there will be no prizes awarded for guessing the subject of the next edition...

However, on hearing the news, my first (and instinctive) reaction was "There goes the blind faith that markets had been placing in central bankers".

If I'm right, then the world which began on January 16, 2015 is going to look a hell of a lot different to that which we were living in on January 15.

This inconceivable monetary experiment in which we have all been coopted as lab rats was 100% reliant upon us having complete faith in central bankers.

They tell us that they have our backs and that it's safe to buy risk assets and we do just that. Simple.

Of course, that, like everything else, works until it doesn't and the SNB just became the first central bank to not only break a promise to us, but do so in a way that causes the maximum amount of pain to the maximum amount of people (witness the short CHF positioning below).

Believing completely in central banks is like having a pet alligator; everything is wonderful until, lulled by the fact that most of the time alligators just lay in the sun doing nothing, you forget just how dangerous an alligator is and it bites your leg off.

The SNB just let the alligator off the leash and I guarantee you that the wild ride in the CHF that we saw on Thursday is just the beginning of the volatilityCHF Futures Positioninig